Duna House: estimated monthly volumes of residential real estate transactions and mortgage loans 2022.04.04.







Estimation of the volume of residential real estate transactions and forecasts of mortgage loans for

March 2022

Duna House presents its Monthly Transaction Count Estimate (DH-TE) and Mortgage Forecast below, showing that in March 2022, 14,548 real estate transactions were completed and residential mortgage deals worth $108 billion. HUF have been signed all over Hungary.

According to Duna House estimates, the residential real estate market is still on the rise, as indicated by the 14,548 sales transactions concluded in March. Sales were 5% higher than the previous month and still only 7% below the record March 2021 figures, meaning that in the first quarter of 2022 the number of sales was 39,156 in the whole of Hungary, which is the second best start to the year in the last decade and barely 5% behind the start of last year, which was made possible by strong demand at the time. Based on Duna House’s market experience, inflation of interest on loans and the urge to exploit the new housing subsidies that are still available have motivated buyers to bring their purchases forward. The number of transactions was also boosted by strong investor activity, as for many the real estate market provides a safe haven in economically uncertain and unpredictable times.

Residential loan turnover increased in line with the real estate market: according to data published by Duna House Finances, the estimated volume was HUF 108 billion, 4% more than in February 2022 and 3% more than in March 2021. For the whole quarter and based on the factual month of January The February figures released by the National Bank of Hungary and the March estimate from Duna House show a total loan volume of HUF 320 billion, which is 37% more than in the first quarter of 2021. Historically, the number of applications submitted in March is increasing at a steady rate. rate higher than the total amount of loans disbursed, which means that we can continue to expect to see very strong numbers in the residential loan market in the coming months as well.

Budapest, April 1, 2022

The table below shows Duna House’s monthly trading volume estimates.

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2020

9917

13,117

11,100

5971

8400

11,186

13,125

11,923

12,708

12,200

11,369

10,354

2021

11,185

14,569

15,630

13,511

14,198

13,615

11,185

11,304

11,807

11,526

11,022

11,422

2022

10,815

13,793

14,548

Methodology behind DH-TE: Regardless of the time of year, the most important real estate market indicator is the annual number of sales transactions. The DH-TE figure is an estimate published by Duna House and reflects provisional approximate data. The estimate is based on the number of monthly real estate transactions brokered by Duna House and Duna House’s estimated market share. Duna House’s current monthly market share estimate is based on the following indicators: 1. Data published by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office on P2P transactions. Since the Statistical Office publishes data with several months‘ delay, market the share can be adjusted retroactively, which also results in a more accurate estimate. Note: After 2016 and due to the boom in new apartments, pre-contractual purchase transactions appear in the statistics of the Statistical Office with a delay of several months or even one or two years, after the tax on real estate transfers has collected, which leads to anomalies in the statistics. 2. The number of energy certificates issued; 3. Subjective assessment based on other Duna House Holding management information.

Please also note that DH-TE data cannot be used to define the volume of transactions traded by Duna House, or to estimate the trading profit of Duna House Holding or to draw related conclusions.

Mortgage forecasts: the figures published by Duna House Loan Center can mainly be used for quick trend forecasts; the National Bank of Hungary publishes the actual figures for the penultimate month at the beginning of each month.

Warning

Duna House Holding Nyrt. published this content on April 04, 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by publicunedited and unmodified, on Apr 04, 2022 10:26:02 AM UTC.

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