Duna House: Estimated Monthly Residential Real Estate and Mortgage Transaction Volumes







Estimation of the volume of residential real estate transactions and forecasts of mortgage loans for

June 2022

Duna House presents below its monthly estimate of the number of transactions (DH-TE) and its mortgage forecast, showing that in June 2022, 10,859 real estate transactions were concluded and residential mortgage contracts worth 120 billion HUF were signed all over Hungary.

Summer has begun in the real estate market. In June 2022, the 10,859 sales transactions in Duna House’s estimate show lower turnover compared to both the previous month and the same period last year. This represents a decrease of 13% and 20% compared to May and June 2021, respectively. This means that according to Duna House, the first half saw almost 75,000 transactions, 10% less than in 2021 and 25% more than during the epidemic-stricken year 2020. Experts predict a more moderate real estate market in the second half. of the year due to rising interest rates, so sellers and buyers may need more help.

The mortgage market also trended lower in June, partly due to the volume of green mortgages being phased out. Duna House estimates that housing loans worth HUF 120 billion were disbursed in the first month of summer. This represents a drop of 13 to 15% compared to June of last year and May of this year. On a semi-annual basis, based on factual figures from the MNB, the National Bank of Hungary and May and June estimates from Duna House, a total of HUF 753 billion in residential loans was taken, representing a 26% increase compared to the first half of 2021.

Budapest, July 4, 2022

background information

The table below shows Duna House’s monthly trading volume estimates.

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2020

9917

13,117

11,100

5971

8400

11,186

13,125

11,923

12,708

12,200

11,369

10,354

2021

11,185

14,569

15,630

13,511

14,198

13,615

11,185

11,304

11,807

11,526

11,022

11,422

2022

10,815

13,793

14,548

11,911

12,519

10,859

Methodology behind DH-TE: Regardless of the time of year, the most important real estate market indicator is the annual number of sales transactions. The DH-TE figure is an estimate published by Duna House and reflects provisional approximate data. The estimate is based on the number of monthly real estate transactions brokered by Duna House and Duna House’s estimated market share. Duna House’s current monthly market share estimate is based on the following indicators: 1. Data published by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office on P2P transactions. Since the Statistical Office publishes data several months late, the market share can be adjusted retroactively, which also results in a more accurate estimate. Note: After 2016 and due to the boom in new apartments, pre-contractual purchase transactions appear in the statistics of the Statistical Office with a delay of several months or even one or two years, after the tax on real estate transfers has collected, which leads to anomalies in the statistics. 2. The number of energy certificates issued; 3. Subjective assessment based on other Duna House Holding management information.

Please also note that DH-TE data cannot be used to define the volume of transactions traded by Duna House, or to estimate the trading profit of Duna House Holding or to draw related conclusions.

Mortgage forecasts: the figures published by Duna House Loan Center can mainly be used for quick trend forecasts; the National Bank of Hungary publishes the actual figures for the penultimate month at the beginning of each month.

Disclaimer

Duna House Holding plc published this content on July 04, 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Audienceunedited and unmodified, on Jul 04, 2022 21:02:07 UTC.

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