Duna House: estimate of monthly volumes of residential real estate transactions and mortgages


Estimation of the volume of residential real estate transactions and mortgage forecasts for

december 2021

Duna House presents below its monthly estimate of the number of transactions (DH-TE) and its mortgage forecast, showing that as of December 2021, 11,422 real estate transactions have been concluded and residential mortgage contracts worth 110 billion HUF were signed across Hungary.

According to Duna House estimates, 11,422 residential real estate transactions were completed in December, almost 4% more than in November. This figure is indicative of a 10.3% and 12.8% increase in market activity compared to December 2020 and 2019, respectively. With this year-end result, the volume of the Hungarian residential real estate market has reached and even exceeded the limit of 150,000 transactions: Duna House estimates that a total of 150,974 sale transactions were concluded in 2021, an increase by 15% year-on-year compared to 2020.

That said, the mortgage market showed signs of cooling in December, judging by figures released by Duna House Finance. The mortgage agency’s estimated turnover of HUF 110 billion was 1.5 times higher than a year earlier and was roughly the same as in November. Based on factual figures from the National Bank of Hungary and estimates released by Duna House for the last two months of the year, a combined mortgage deal volume of HUF 1.3 trillion was concluded in 2021 in Hungary, or 40% more than in 2020.

Budapest, January 3, 2022.

Background information

The table below shows Duna House’s monthly trading volume estimates.

January

February

March

April

Can

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2018

10 918

12,869

13,426

13,180

13 967

13,098

14,246

13,869

12 787

12 689

12,033

9 721

2019

10,741

13,532

14 373

14 166

13,512

11 069

12 764

11 945

13 364

13,182

10 945

10,127

2020

9917

13,117

11,100

5971

8400

11 186

13 125

11 923

12,708

12,200

11 369

10 354

2021

11 185

14 569

15,630

13,511

14,198

13,615

11 185

11,304

11,807

11,526

11 022

11 422

Methodology behind DH-TE: Regardless of the time of year, the most important indicator of the real estate market is the annual number of sales transactions. DH-TE figure is an estimate published by Duna House and reflects provisional approximate data. The estimate is based on the number of monthly real estate transactions negotiated by Duna House and the

Duna House’s estimated market share. The estimate of the current monthly market share of Duna House is based on the following indicators: 1. Data published by the Hungarian Central Office for Statistics on transactions between individuals. Since the Statistical Office publishes the data several months late, the market share can be adjusted retroactively, which also allows a more precise estimate. Note: After 2016 and following the boom in new apartments, pre-contracted purchase transactions appear in the statistics of the Statistical Office with a delay of several months or even one or two years, after the transfer tax has been collected, which causes anomalies in the statistics. 2. The number of energy certificates issued; 3. Subjective assessment based on other management information from Duna House Holding.

Please also note that DH-TE data cannot be used to define the volume of transactions traded by Duna House, or to estimate the trading profit of Duna House Holding or to draw related conclusions.

Mortgage Forecasts: Figures released by Duna House Loan Center can primarily be used for quick trend forecasts; the National Bank of Hungary publishes the actual figures for the penultimate month at the beginning of each month.

Warning

Duna House Holding plc published this content on January 07, 2022 and is solely responsible for the information it contains. Distributed by Public, unedited and unmodified, on 07 January 2022 10:57:03 AM UTC.

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